The movement of ocean currents in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf Stream, has a considerable influence on European climate. To predict the strength of these currents over several years would anticipate changes in climate. Integrating both oceanographic and atmospheric models, a team of the Max Planck Institute specialized in meteorology has just validated a reliable forecasting tool over four years.

Researchers have used a model that characterizes the movement of ocean currents in the North Atlantic (MPI-OM) with a model involving the flow of air currents (Echam5). The result has created a tool that can anticipate the behavior and strength of the Gulf Stream. In order to be valid, comparisons were made retroactively. The results obtained with both MPI-OM/Echam5 were confronted with actual measurements taken at sea between April 2004 and March 2009 (five years) in the framework of the Rapid-Mocha. The tool has proved very reliable.

The mood of the Gulf Stream finally predictable

The scientists decided to use their model to make predictions. Several simulations were launched ten years to four years interval (2008 to 2011) taking into account whenever new meteorological measurements made ​​on the ground. The overall results showed that the Gulf Stream would be stable at least until 2014 despite all the current controversies about its possible slowdown.

The model predictions month by month. It can therefore be used to determine the risk of developing hurricanes. This interval also allows to study climate change could affect Europe with sufficient accuracy.

With the knowledge of ocean dynamics (not only by temperature measurements), researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology thus have developed a powerful tool for anticipating weather events that would affect us in the coming years.

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